A Look Ahead: NAR’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook

by Lysi Bishop Real Estate

Photo courtest of Lysi Bishop Real Estate

The National Association of Realtors® released its 2026 housing forecast last week, offering an encouraging glimpse of what's ahead for buyers, sellers, and investors across the country. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a meaningful rebound in existing-home sales next year—an estimated 14% increase—as mortgage rates ease, job growth remains steady, and overall market stability improves after several challenging years.

Home prices are expected to rise by about 4% in 2026, supported by strong demand and ongoing inventory shortages. Yun emphasized that prices nationwide are “in no danger of declining,” noting that even modest improvements in mortgage rates (averaging around 6% next year) will help restore affordability for many buyers.

Markets with strong new construction stand to see the greatest gains in affordability. Expanded inventory in these high-building regions is expected to open more doors for first-time buyers once borrowing costs retreat.

Alongside the economic outlook, NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz shared insights from the newly released 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, highlighting how shifting demographics are reshaping buyer behavior. Today’s typical home buyer is 59 years old, while repeat buyers average 62—a trend driven largely by what Lautz calls “the grandbaby effect,” with many buyers moving to be closer to loved ones.

First-time buyers, however, continue to face pressure. Their share of the market has fallen to 21%, an all-time low, and the median first-time buyer is now 40 years old. High rents, student loan debt, and difficulty saving for a down payment continue to create headwinds.

One constant remains: the value of trusted real estate professionals. A strong 88% of buyers and 91% of sellers used an agent in their most recent transaction, leaning on expert guidance for pricing, marketing, and navigating shifting conditions.

Overall, NAR’s outlook paints a picture of a market gaining momentum with meaningful improvements on the horizon and continued demand for skilled representation as the landscape evolves.

Lysi Bishop Real Estate is an expert in the Boise Real Estate market, offering unmatched expertise and unparalleled service to clients around the Treasure Valley. With over 30 years of in-depth knowledge and experience, Lysi Bishop inspires and leads her team of dedicated agents towards earning the title of the Best Boise Real Estate Team, year after year.

Our team specializes in luxury homes and five-star, concierge-style service in Boise and all surrounding areas, including neighborhoods like the North End, East End, Highlands, Collister, Harris Ranch, Warm Springs Mesa, East End Foothills, Boise Bench, SE Boise, Barber Valley, and West Bench, and extending into Eagle, Two Rivers, Hidden Springs, Meridian, Nampa, and Kuna.