What the Next 4 Years May Hold for the Housing Market

At Lysi Bishop Real Estate, we’re closely watching what’s ahead for the market, and what we’re seeing now is a clear pivot from the rapid acceleration of the past few years toward a more balanced, sustainable housing landscape. The latest expert forecasts offer a clear message: real estate is entering a new era of stability, not stagnation.

According to the recently released Q1 2025 Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), home prices nationwide are expected to continue rising, but at a more moderate pace. After an estimated 5.8% increase in 2024, the expert consensus forecasts price growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026. While this represents a slower pace than the double-digit surges of recent years, it signals a healthy normalization. Over the full five-year window from 2025 through the end of 2029, prices are projected to increase nearly 20% cumulatively, driven by long-term demand, constrained inventory, and sustained homeownership trends.

The HPES doesn’t just show the average, and what’s fascinating is the wide range of predictions. The most optimistic experts forecast a 31% rise in prices over five years, while the most cautious predict just over 8%. This wide “dispersion” reflects the uncertainty in today’s economic landscape; everything from mortgage rate movement to supply constraints to broader financial market shifts will influence how the next few years unfold.

What does this mean in practical terms? The dramatic bidding wars and soaring valuations of 2020–2022 are giving way to a calmer, more thoughtful market. Yet even in this environment of moderation, the trajectory is still upward. This shift marks a return to historical norms, far from the volatility of the past, and is not a sign of a downturn. 

For buyers, this means waiting for a market “cooldown” may not result in lower prices, just steadier gains. For sellers, it’s still a favorable environment, though thoughtful pricing and strategic preparation are more important than ever. And for homeowners, the long-term outlook remains positive, with continued equity growth on the horizon.

We see opportunity in this evolving market, especially for those who are informed, prepared, and expertly guided. While national forecasts offer valuable insight, real estate is always local. Here in Boise, we continue to see strong demand, especially in lifestyle-driven neighborhoods and luxury segments. From elevated foothills estates to thoughtfully designed downtown residences, Boise remains one of the most desirable and resilient markets in the country.